Maputo, Sept. 16, 2026 (Lusa) - FEWS NET forecasts fewer Mozambicans needing urgent food assistance in 2027, thanks to improved reserves, increased market supply and reduced conflict-related displacement in Cabo Delgado.
An analysis published today by this US-funded international early warning network for food crises projects that between 1.5 and 1.99 million people will require urgent food assistance in March 2027 in Mozambique – a figure considered lower than that observed in the same period the previous year and below the five-year average, although late-stage risks linked to the El Niño phenomenon persist.
The organisation ranks Mozambique among the few countries monitored where food needs are expected to decrease compared with 1 March 2026, alongside Kenya, Zambia and Burundi.
According to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), the expected improvement stems from several factors, including reduced displacement caused by the armed conflict in Cabo Delgado and robust household food reserves supported by the 2026 agricultural harvest and market supplies.
This assessment contrasts somewhat with previously issued alerts and, despite the more favourable outlook, FEWS NET cautions that some areas of Mozambique will continue to experience food insecurity. The organisation predicts that areas affected by the conflict in Cabo Delgado and semi-arid regions in the centre and south will remain in a state of food crisis, corresponding to IPC Phase 3.
The report identifies conflict and climate shocks as the main risk factors for the country and warns that the most severe impacts of the El Niño phenomenon may emerge later in 2027.
According to FEWS NET, rainfall deficits associated with the climate phenomenon are expected to reduce cultivated areas and opportunities for agricultural work, limiting access to food for the poorest households. However, the organisation believes these effects will not yet be fully apparent in March 2027 because of the positive impact of this year's harvests and current market supply conditions.
The international network also estimates that between 5% and 10% of the Mozambican population may face acute food insecurity in March next year, meaning there remains a need to monitor the areas most vulnerable to drought and armed violence.
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