Lisbon, Dec. 2, 2025 (Lusa) - The OECD predicted on Tuesday that Portuguese economic growth will accelerate in 2026, rising from 1.9% in 2025 to 2.2% next year, followed by a slowdown in 2027 to 1.8%.
The projections are part of the Economic Outlook report, released today in Paris by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in which the institution also points to a slowdown in the global economy and the eurozone.
In the case of Portugal, "sustained wage growth and robust employment will boost consumption, especially as inflation and debt servicing costs are expected to remain moderate" and, at the same time, reductions in personal income tax and wage growth "will support household incomes but also slow the decline in inflation".
"A further decline in the household savings rate and stronger-than-expected wage growth could boost consumption but also fuel inflation. Higher-than-expected public spending, particularly on defence, could also increase domestic demand," warns the OECD.
On the other hand, despite pointing to an acceleration in economic activity in 2026, the organisation notes that "the reduction in disbursements from the Recovery and Resilience Plan and high uncertainty could weigh on investment, implying lower growth [than currently projected] and lower inflation".
European funds "will temporarily boost investment, but the slowdown in external demand will weigh on exports," it explains.
The labour market, the increase in the minimum wage and the reduction in personal income tax, it says, "should support private consumption". At the same time, it explains, the increase in Recovery and Resilience Plan payments will help the economy by contributing to "greater public investment in 2026".
"Export growth will remain moderate, reflecting weak external demand in a context of rising United States tariffs and high uncertainty. As labour demand remains strong, inflation will moderate only slowly to 2.0% in 2027," the OECD anticipates.
Regarding Portuguese fiscal policy, the institution led by Mathias Cormann notes that it will remain "expansionary in 2026 and become contractionary in 2027, mainly reflecting the end of the Recovery and Resilience Plan implementation in 2026".
"Fiscal prudence and structural reforms are key to sustaining growth and keeping public debt on a firm downward path," the organisation believes, considering that "in the medium term, containing age-related expenditure pressures and reducing inefficient fiscal expenditure would create space for the public investment needed to boost productivity".
In the same report, the OECD forecasts that global GDP growth will slow from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, with economic activity facing "fragile prospects", followed by a "small recovery" to 3.1% in 2027.
Growth in the euro area "is expected to slow slightly, from 1.3% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026, before rising to 1.4% in 2027, with increased trade frictions being offset by improved financial conditions, continued capital spending from the Recovery and Resilience Facility funds, and resilient labour markets," the OECD said.
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