Lisbon, July 6, 2026 (Lusa) - Portugal's Socialist Party (PS) on Monday called for a parliamentary hearing with the National Statistics Institute (INE) so that the public debate on population estimates can be conducted “with prudence and rigour”, criticising the “very rudimentary calculations” made by ministers regarding this data.
“The aim is to clarify the situation, to analyse it with carefulness and accuracy, and to emphasise our full respect for the independence of the INE. (…) The last two weeks have been very eventful in terms of the conclusions drawn from the publication of the estimates for the resident population in 2025, and we therefore believe it is important to create the conditions for everyone to understand what is happening,” explained PS MP Carlos Pereira in comments to Lusa.
At issue is the INE update of the number of residents in Portugal to 11,424,031 people, following the inclusion of 1,597,539 foreign nationals; the Socialist MP considers it important for the institute to explain – not only to parliament but also to the general public – “what methodology it used and what difficulties it encountered”.
“One of the key issues is that we have seen some commentators, but also some politicians – and it is probably more serious that this has come from some politicians, including the minister himself – making very rudimentary calculations, if I may say so, essentially dividing the GDP we know today – the figure we know only as of today – by the new population figure presented by INE,” he criticised, referring to statements made by (cabinet office minister) António Leitão Amaro For Carlos Pereira, this is “imprudent and even irresponsible”, given that the minister “knows that this change in the assessment of Portugal’s population figures also has consequences for the assessment of wealth growth”.
“I have little doubt – even before the INE has finalised its calculations – that there will be a positive impact on GDP and that there will be an upward revision of GDP. If you ask me what the scale of that revision will be, I haven’t the faintest idea; that is precisely why prudence is needed when assessing these matters,” he argued.
The PS MP wants to understand the entire process behind this revision and to know “whether or not there were difficulties in sharing information”.
“Because one of the issues that arose, and which is mentioned in the technical note, relates to this sharing of information between the Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (AIMA) and INE. The INE even went so far as to say that it had some difficulties in obtaining that information”, he explained.
For Carlos Pereira, “this hearing is very important” in order to consolidate “the analysis that has been carried out on this matter”.
“And we must exercise caution regarding the conclusions that may be drawn about past public policies, bearing in mind these indicators”, he said.
In line with what former minister of finance Mário Centeno said at the PS’s parliamentary conference, the Socialist MP believes “there is more or less a consensus that it was apparent” that the population figures in the 2021 series “were out of step with reality”.
“We also need to know the remaining schedule for the forthcoming revisions because the revisions of the time series are very important, and therefore we need to understand how this will be carried out. We must not forget that we have a state budget just around the corner, which requires data that is sound and in which we can all have confidence,” he further argued.
In the motion, the PS states that it wishes to hear from the head of INE and that, if António Rua sees fit, he may be accompanied by the director of the Department of Demographic and Social Statistics and the director of the Department of National Accounts to discuss the 2025 resident population estimates, the revision of the time series for 2021 to 2024, and the respective statistical, economic and budgetary implications.
The release of this data has already prompted the PSD to announce that it will request parliamentary hearings with former PS ministers on this issue.
JF/AYLS // AYLS
Lusa
