Lisbon, June 15, 2026 (Lusa) - The Bank of Portugal forecasts that inflation will reach 3.1% this year and return to a figure close to 2% in the coming years, according to the Economic Bulletin published on Monday.

“The rise in inflation in 2026 largely reflects the increase in oil prices linked to the war in Iran, which has affected a significant portion of the global supply of energy raw materials,” the document states.

The government, meanwhile, forecasts inflation of 2.5% in 2026, according to the updated projections sent to Brussels in April.

Against this backdrop of rising prices due to the conflict in the Middle East, the Governor of the Bank of Portugal today upheld the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to raise interest rates, considering that it was aimed at preventing an inflationary spiral.

At the press conference presenting the Economic Bulletin in Lisbon, the governor emphasised that the decision “was unanimous”, against a backdrop of “rising prices, not only for energy but also for fertilisers, with prices beginning to affect other goods and services”.

As for the conflict’s impact on the economy, the governor stressed that this will depend very much on the duration of the war.

The United States and Iran are, this week, preparing to sign the peace agreement reached through Pakistan’s mediation, which will allow the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, although doubts remain regarding the nuclear issue and frozen Iranian funds.

Álvaro Santos Pereira stressed that, if it goes ahead, this agreement is positive news, which “will help the economy”. Even so, he noted that it may take some time for the effect to be felt.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz were opened today, it would still “take a few months for all operations to return to normal”, said the governor, bearing in mind that “oil and gas facilities were hit” and also that “it will take some time to get all the plants up and running again”.

MES/AYLS // AYLS

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