Maputo, Sept. 26, 2025 (Lusa) - The Mozambican government announced on Friday that the economy experienced a year-on-year inflation rate of 4.79% in the first half of the year, driven by a recovery in investor confidence, and that it anticipates GDP growth of up to 2.5% this year.
"Despite the economic and financial challenges, inflationary pressure remains contained, with a year-on-year variation of 4.79%, which has contributed to the reduction of interest rates in the credit market," said Mozambique's planning and development minister, Salim Valá.
The minister was speaking in Maputo during the Development Observatory, a consultative forum between the executive and partners in development matters, where the government presented the proposal for the 2026 Economic and Social Plan and State Budget (PESOE) and data from this year"s implementation, pointing to the country"s economic recovery, especially after the post-election protests in late 2024 and early this year, which affected the economy.
"These indicators show a recovery in the economy and a revival in private investor confidence, and it is expected that by the end of the year, GDP [Gross Domestic Product] growth will be in the 1.9% to 2.5% range," said Salim Valá.
The minister stated that this growth is being sustained by the revitalisation of productive activities, including the introduction of a new dynamic in the manufacturing, agricultural, construction, tourism, transportation, and service sectors.
With the "encouraging signs" of economic recovery also seen in the second half of the year, the government expects the pace of economic growth to accelerate next year, the second year of the government's Five-Year Plan, led by President Daniel Chapo, who was elected in October.
According to the minister, from next year onwards the country will also "enter into cruising speed towards the establishment of an economy based on multiple economic sectors, not excessively dependent on the extractive industry, turbocharging the processes of economic transformation and strengthening the foundations for the achievement of economic independence".
The Mozambican government also predicts a moderate economic recovery of around 3.2% in 2026, driven by the recovery of the services sectors, the expansion of liquefied natural gas exports, the dynamism of the agricultural sectors, and significant investments in the energy sector.
"The average annual inflation rate should remain within an estimated target of 3.7%, benefiting from a prudent monetary policy and relative exchange rate stability," said Minister Valá.
The government has previously predicted that Mozambique will end 2025 with inflation of around 7%.
The Bank of Mozambique estimates that annual inflation will continue to decelerate in the coming months, reflecting the recent decision to exempt some basic products from VAT and reduce toll tariffs by up to 60%.
"In the short term, the trend towards a slowdown in annual inflation is expected to continue, reflecting the impact of the VAT exemption on basic products (sugar, cooking oil and soap), the downward adjustment of water and toll tariffs and the fall in food prices on the international market, in a context of the stability of the metical," reads the Economic Situation and Inflation Outlook report, reported in May by Lusa.
The document also points out that the usual survey of economic agents “corroborates the outlook for a slowdown in annual inflation”, since the macroeconomic expectations of economic agents revealed in the May study “point to annual inflation of 4.9% in December 2025, which represents a downward revision of three basis points compared to the expectations published in the April survey”.
PME/ADB // ADB.
Lusa
