Macau, China, Oct. 2, 2026 (Lusa) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Macau's economy remained resilient in 2025 despite an adverse external backdrop, but it still relies heavily on gambling and tourism.
The IMF's Executive Board wrote in a report following the conclusion of the Article IV consultation in September that Macau's economy «remained resilient despite the headwinds», although growth continues to be driven by «a strong external sector against a backdrop of weak domestic demand», according to the text released on Tuesday.
Economic activity continued to recover in 2025, supported by the strong performance of the gambling and tourism sectors, with visitor arrivals exceeding pre-pandemic levels, the Fund notes.
Macau reached an all-time high of over 40 million visitors in 2025, surpassing the pre-pandemic peak recorded in 2019, and ended the year with 247.4 billion patacas (€26.64 billion) in gross gambling revenue, up 9.1% year on year.
Gambling revenue in Macau fell 17.5% in September 2026 from the previous month, reaching its lowest level in the last two years, according to figures released on Thursday. However, the first nine months of the year saw a 3.2% increase compared with the previous year, totalling 187.11 billion patacas (€20.45 billion).
Although revenue has yet to reach its pre-pandemic peak, the financial institution attributes this trend to regulatory changes, strengthened measures to combat money laundering and the financing of terrorism, and shifts in visitors' spending patterns.
The IMF points out that «the recovery in tourist arrivals has not translated into a broad-based recovery in domestic demand», while investment remains constrained by «still restrictive credit conditions, high uncertainty, a weak property sector and lower-than-expected public expenditure».
The Fund now forecasts that economic growth will gradually slow over the coming years, in line with the projected slowdown in mainland China and Hong Kong.
According to the report, inflation in the territory is expected to rise slightly as economic activity strengthens and the effects of falling import prices from mainland China fade.
The IMF noted that the outlook remains subject to risks, including a possible intensification of geopolitical conflicts, renewed trade tensions, volatility in international financial markets, and cyber threats.
Additional opportunities for resilience include managing growing competition in the gaming sector, preparing for extreme weather events, and supporting the local property market.
On the other hand, the organisation believes that faster implementation of the diversification agenda, deeper integration into the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area and greater investment in high value-added sectors could boost growth and employment.
However, the Fund noted that achieving the government's target of raising the share of non-gaming activities to 60% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030 will require «further investment efforts» in skills training, attracting talent, developing physical and digital infrastructure, and improving the business environment.
The IMF advocates a more active use of fiscal policy, arguing that, «given the ample fiscal space, fiscal policy should seek to boost domestic demand, foster economic diversification and address population ageing».
Macau's financial reserves reached a new all-time high at the end of June 2026, totalling 704.3 billion patacas (€75.3 billion).
In the short term, the organisation recommends implementing more effectively the expenditure already provided for in the budget, particularly in social programmes related to the ageing population and in public investment.
In the financial sector, the IMF considers that «the banking system remains resilient», but emphasised that further reforms are needed to «safeguard financial stability, support the development of the financial sector and preserve financial integrity».
The institution calls for improvements in the quality of bank assets, risk-based supervision, stress testing and credit risk monitoring, whilst also advocating for more robust supervision of non-bank financial institutions.
The report also highlights digitalisation and artificial intelligence as tools that could accelerate economic transformation, provide appropriate safeguards regarding financial integrity, data governance, cybersecurity and workforce adaptation accompany them.
Finally, the IMF maintains that «strengthening climate resilience must remain a policy priority», recommending investment in flood defences, drainage systems, adaptation of critical infrastructure and improved early warning and emergency response mechanisms.
NCM/ADB // ADB.
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