Maputo, Sept. 1, 2026 (Lusa) - The UN has ranked Mozambique amongst the three countries in southern Africa of greatest concern in the face of El Nino, forecasting a worsening of drought, famine and displacement, with 3.5 million people already facing acute food insecurity.
Mozambique, together with Madagascar and Malawi, is included in the group of countries identified by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) as being of «very high concern» in relation to the 2026/27 El Niño climate phenomenon, which is forecast to reach very strong intensity during the region's main agricultural season.
According to the Southern Africa preparedness report published by OCHA, there is a probability of over 90% that the current El Niño episode will reach very strong intensity by March 2027, and a 70% probability that rainfall deficits between October and December will exceed those recorded in any El Niño episode since 1950.
In the case of Mozambique, the National Institute of Meteorology forecasts a strong El Niño between November 2026 and April 2027, with below-average rainfall in the south and centre of the country and above-average rainfall in the north.
The UN warns that the most immediate impacts are likely to be felt in water supply, agriculture and livelihoods. Reduced rainfall and falling reservoir levels could limit the availability of water for households, agriculture and industry, leaving communities dependent on rain-fed agriculture particularly vulnerable.
The document identifies the risk of drought in the south of the country, continued displacement in Cabo Delgado and Nampula, rising prices, cholera and disruptions to agricultural activity as the main threats.
This concern arises against a backdrop in which Mozambique continues to face cumulative vulnerabilities, with OCHA noting that around 3.5 million people are currently facing acute food insecurity, out of a regional total of 13.3 million people included in the stage 3 or higher category on the IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classifiction) scale.
Mozambique also has around 662,000 internally displaced people, mostly due to the armed conflict in Cabo Delgado, a situation which, according to the report, increases the vulnerability of people to climate shocks, rising food prices and reduced humanitarian assistance.
The document also notes that the country was one of the hardest hit by extreme weather events during the 2025/26 rainy season, with around one million people affected by cyclones and floods.
It also identifies Zimbabwe, Zambia and Angola as countries of «high concern». Lesotho, Namibia, Eswatini, Tanzania and Botswana are included among the countries requiring monitoring due to the likelihood of drought and extreme heat during the coming agricultural season.
The report notes that the drought associated with El Niño in 2023/24 was one of the worst in recent decades, causing widespread agricultural losses and pushing more than 29 million people into severe food insecurity, whilst around 61 million required humanitarian assistance in 2024.
Despite improvements following the 2025/26 harvests, the region continues to face high levels of vulnerability, with around 13.3 million people experiencing acute food insecurity, 652,000 children suffering from acute malnutrition, 662,000 internally displaced persons, and approximately 586,000 refugees and asylum-seekers spread across various countries in the region, the report states.
The UN warns that the combination of drought, extreme temperatures, water scarcity, disease outbreaks and rising food prices could reverse recent progress. However, of the $111.3 million (€95.7 million) earmarked for 84 early preparedness actions across 13 countries in southern Africa, around 80% remain unfunded, with the next three months described as critical for mitigating the humanitarian impact of the crisis.
PVJ/AYLS // AYLS
Lusa
