Maputo, Aug. 27, 2026 (Lusa) - Floods, droughts and cyclones are exacerbating vulnerabilities and increasing tensions between internally displaced people from the armed conflict in northern Mozambique and host communities, warns a study by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM).
In the study entitled «Climate Change, Displacement and Social Cohesion», the UN agency concludes that extreme weather events not only force people to leave their homes, but also alter social relations between displaced people and the communities that take them in – a phenomenon that is increasingly evident in regions simultaneously affected by displacement and climate impacts.
The study was carried out in the provinces of Cabo Delgado, in the north of the country, and Manica, in the centre, and sought to understand how climate change influences relations between internally displaced people and host communities in contexts marked by cyclones, floods and droughts. The analysis ranged from communities fleeing the armed insurgency in Cabo Delgado to families displaced by drought in Manica, seeking to understand how extreme weather events affect communities that are already vulnerable.
According to the IOM, displaced people face increased vulnerability to climatic phenomena due to a lack of local knowledge, social support networks and access to alternative means of subsistence – factors that limit their capacity to respond to natural disasters.
«The lack or limitation of local knowledge reduces the ability of displaced people to navigate and respond to climate events, thereby increasing their vulnerability,» states one of the document's key findings.
The study also concludes that host communities often view the arrival of displaced people as a factor that increases pressure on already scarce resources: «Host communities perceive the presence of displaced people as limiting their ability to respond to and recover from climate-related events».
The IOM further notes that both sudden-onset phenomena, such as cyclones and floods, and slower-onset events, such as prolonged droughts, contribute to widening the social divide between displaced people and host communities, although the mechanisms vary according to the context.
In Cabo Delgado, for example, cyclones destroyed communal spaces, markets, schools and infrastructure used by both groups, reducing opportunities for interaction and cooperation. In Manica, the drought exacerbated disputes over access to land and water, against a backdrop of growing resource scarcity, as the study notes.
Despite this, the UN agency reports that it has identified some positive effects associated with natural disasters. In communities affected by cyclones, there was a temporary increase in social cohesion within groups of displaced people and within host communities, driven by the shared experience of loss and destruction.
However, this greater solidarity did not necessarily translate into improved relations between displaced people and host communities. On the contrary, the study notes that humanitarian assistance and the way it is distributed can significantly influence these relations, creating perceptions of inequality when one of the groups feels it is receiving less support.
The IOM also warns that, without investment in climate adaptation and the management of environmental impacts, extreme events could increase the risk of future instability, exacerbating existing tensions in vulnerable communities.
Since October 2017, the gas-rich province of Cabo Delgado has been facing an armed rebellion, with attacks claimed by movements linked to the extremist group Islamic State, which have already left at least 6,600 people dead.
Mozambique is also considered one of the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, regularly experiencing floods, tropical cyclones and other extreme weather events during the rainy season.
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