Maputo, May 12, 2026 (Lusa) – Mozambique's Public Integrity Centre (CIP), a non-governmental organisation (NGO), criticised on Tuesday the government's "excessive reliance" on the extractive sector, rejecting gas as the only development driver and called for investment in areas with short-term returns.
"Mozambique’s government has relied excessively on the extractive sector, while leaving aside other sectors that could generate development and improve living conditions much faster than the extractive sector," CIP director Edson Cortez said during the launch of a study in Maputo on the impact of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exploitation.
Cortez said the research, titled "What does Rovuma gas really generate for Mozambique? – Fiscal analysis of Coral Sul FLNG [floating LNG platform operated by Italy’s Eni] and the limits of the LNG dependency model," was developed with the Centre for Democracy and Human Rights (CDD), a local civil society group, and Oxfam.
It shows that expectations surrounding gas exploration in northern Mozambique remain extremely high, with many presenting it as the country’s “development engine.”
“The contracts make it unlikely that Mozambique will earn enough money during the projects’ first phase to generate development,” he said. “That is why we carried out this study, to show that, in the case of the Coral Sul project, the state will only begin to see profits from this business from 2033 or 2034.”
Cortez pointed to Middle Eastern countries that secured major financing through oil production and diversified their economies.
He said that if the money Mozambique collects from gas exploitation is insufficient, it will not generate economic diversification or allow investment in social and productive sectors.
CIP researcher Rui Mate said Mozambique is among the 10 countries with the world's largest natural gas reserves.
Projections suggest state revenue of around $77 billion (€65.5 billion).
“The debate surrounding gas often centres on aggregated long-term projections, figures without proper time context, and limited discussion about development costs, debt and the timing of revenues,” he said, also pointing to “limited methodological transparency” in official projections.
CIP recommends that the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), a global standard for the open management of oil, gas, and mining resources, should disclose future revenue projections. It also wants faster publication of audits on recoverable costs.
The authors also said fiscal conditions in Rovuma projects leave room for renegotiation.
They called for revised tax brackets in future developments to secure higher state revenues throughout the projects’ lifespans, among other measures.
Mozambique has three approved LNG megaprojects in the Rovuma basin off Cabo Delgado, which are among the world's largest.
TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil (18 million tonnes per annum) each have projects in Afungi. The $30 billion (€26.1 billion) ExxonMobil venture awaits a final investment decision.
Italy's Eni has produced around seven mtpa (million tonnes per annum) from the Coral Sul floating platform since 2022. It expects to double this from 2028 with the Coral Norte platform, a $7.2 billion (€6.2 billion) investment.
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