Brussels, March 9, 2026 (Lusa) - The minister of finance said on Monday that Portugal could run a deficit in 2026 "if circumstances so require", given the impact of storms and now the conflict in the Middle East, but ruled out an energy crisis like the one in 2022.
"We remain committed to balanced public accounts. We cannot rule out deficits if circumstances so require, but we remain committed to balanced public accounts and reducing public debt," said Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, speaking to Portuguese journalists in Brussels ahead of the Eurogroup meeting.
On a day when natural gas and oil prices rose sharply, the Portuguese minister of finance pointed out that "the good results of 2025 [....] allowed us to look at 2026 with a slightly less narrow [macroeconomic] path, but now, with the storms and this conflict, the path has become very narrow again".
This "narrow path" is due to the payment of interest on loans from the Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR), he added.
"It is important that the country [...] makes choices and that public accounts are balanced, but it is also important to help those affected by the storms, recover the economy and try to protect the country from the external shocks caused by this conflict," said Joaquim Miranda Sarmento.
Stressing that the impact of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran will be greater "the longer it lasts and the more it spreads to other countries in the region," the minister pointed out, however, differences from the energy and inflation crisis of 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, since at that time there was "simultaneously a shock on the supply side" and "a shock on the demand side" due to the post-Covid-19 pandemic.
"I believe that it is, in any case, still too early and perhaps even a little premature to talk about what the impacts of this crisis may be on inflation and, consequently, on interest rates. I believe that there is also an important difference between this crisis and the crisis of 2022, when Ukraine was invaded," he stressed.
Even so, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento recalled that the credit rating agencies Fitch and S&P recently improved Portugal's outlook, despite all these impacts.
The Portuguese minister also declined to "speculate" on what the European Central Bank (ECB) will decide regarding monetary policy in the current context.
Eurozone ministers of finance, meeting today for the first time in Brussels since the start of the war between Israel and the United States and Iran, will discuss the economic impacts of the conflict in terms of energy and inflation.
There are fears in Europe that the energy crisis of 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, could return, as the EU is heavily dependent on imports from global markets, many of which are directly or indirectly linked to the Middle East.
Any military escalation affecting energy production or transport - especially in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil passes - tends to cause shocks in international energy markets and drive up prices.
The ECB, responsible for price stability in the single currency area, has already warned that rising energy prices could generate inflationary pressures in the eurozone.
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