Luanda, Jan. 16, 2026 (Lusa) - Banco de Fomento Angola (BFA) anticipates that this year's state budget performance will be more favourable than expected, estimating a deficit of 1.7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), below the 2.8% projected by the Angolan government.
In the information note "OGE 2026: a more favourable fiscal scenario", BFA analysts justify the forecast with an average oil price higher than that assumed by the Government and a "more restrained execution of expenditure".
"The government forecasts an overall negative balance of around 2.8% of GDP, which reflects that, overall, total expenditure is expected to exceed total revenue, maintaining the need for additional financing. In contrast, our estimates point to a more moderate deficit, close to 1.7% of GDP, which indicates less pressure on public accounts and a potentially more controlled debt trajectory," the report reads.
The 2026 state budget was drawn up with an average oil price of around US$61 (around €52) per barrel, while BFA assumes a reference price of US$65.6 (around €56).
According to the bank's Economic Studies Office, this framework should translate into a "more favourable fiscal scenario", with slightly less pressure on financing needs and greater scope for public debt consolidation.
BFA bank forecasts more moderate economic growth but also lower average inflation in 2026 than the Angolan government.
While the state budget assumes GDP growth of 4.2% and inflation of 13.7%, the bank estimates growth of around 3.6% and average inflation of 12.6%.
The divergence extends to the primary balance. The government anticipates a surplus of around 0.4% of gross domestic product, but BFA points to a primary balance of around 1.4%, justifying this difference with oil revenues higher than those forecast in the 2026 state budget, benefiting from a higher average oil price.
The bank also highlights the non-oil primary balance, a key indicator for assessing the sustainability of public finances without the contribution of oil.
The Executive forecasts a deficit of around 5.1% of GDP, above the limit set in the Public Debt Sustainability Law, while BFA projects a lower figure, close to 4.4%.
Based on official assumptions, the Executive forecasts current revenues of 18.2 trillion kwanzas (around €17.1 billion) and current expenditures of US$16.6 trillion (€15.6 billion), while the BFA estimates point to current revenues slightly above 18.4 trillion kwanzas (€17.3 billion) and lower current expenditure of around US$15.3 trillion (€14.4 billion).
On the revenue side, the BFA estimates oil revenues of 8.2 trillion kwanzas (€7.7 billion), above the 7.5 trillion in the state budget (€7.1 billion), but projects non-oil revenues below the forecast, at 10.2 trillion kwanzas (€9.6 billion), compared to 10.7 trillion kwanzas in the executive's budget (€10.1 billion).
"On our side, we estimate that oil revenues will be around 9.0% higher than those forecast in the state budget, mainly due to the positive oil price differential we assume, although production is also lower. Conversely, we project non-oil revenues to be around 4.4% lower than forecast, as a result of more subdued economic growth," the analysis indicates.
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