Lisbon, Jan. 15, 2026 (Lusa) - Morningstar DBRS, the world's fourth largest credit ratings agency, is the first credit rating agency to assess Portugal this year, in a review scheduled for this Friday, and analysts interviewed by Lusa anticipate that the rating will remain unchanged, but expect that the outlook may improve.
Xtb analyst Vítor Madeira recalls, in statements to Lusa, that in July last year DBRS maintained Portugal's rating at “A” (high) and, in view of the new review, "it is not possible to predict a change with complete certainty".
"A scenario of maintenance is perfectly plausible, since agencies tend to change their ratings only when they identify a material and sustained change in the country's risk profile," the analyst notes.
Looking at macroeconomic indicators, GDP "continues to grow at a gradual pace of 2.4% year-on-year and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter", while inflation is stable and the labour market is experiencing low unemployment, he points out.
As for the outlook, which is currently stable, "there is a possibility of change if the agency believes that the balance of risks is no longer balanced," the analyst points out, adding that a positive change "would be in line with the idea that fundamentals continue to improve consistently, such as the debt ratio on a downward trajectory and a stable macroeconomic environment".
This opinion is shared by Banco Carregosa's Investment Director, Filipe Silva, who told Lusa that he does not anticipate DBRS raising Portugal's rating in this review.
"The most likely scenario, in my view, is a change in the outlook from stable to positive, given that Portugal continues to show indicators that support this development: public debt remains on a downward trajectory, public accounts have remained balanced and growth forecasts remain above the eurozone average, partly supported by the implementation of Recovery and Resilience Programme funds," argues the analyst.
On 18 July, DBRS maintained Portugal's rating at “A” (high) and reaffirmed the stable outlook for the Portuguese Republic's financial rating.
DBRS has a rating scale ranging from AAA to BBB for investment grades and from BB to D for speculative debt grades.
The rating is an assessment assigned by financial rating agencies, which has a major impact on the financing of countries and companies, as it assesses credit risk.
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