Maputo, Jan. 6, 2026 (Lusa) - Mozambique's economic activity accelerated in December for the third consecutive month, with the "biggest improvement" in private sector conditions in the last 10 months and "great optimism" for 2026, according to the PMI index released on Tuesday by Standard Bank.
The monthly study, consulted by Lusa, states that the December Mozambique Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) "marked the biggest improvement in private sector conditions in the last 10 months, driven by the sharpest increase in labour numbers in more than two and a half years".
"Rising levels of new business and production supported companies in their decisions to hire, acquire more means of production and, for the first time since last April, increase their stocks. However, the rate of inflation in the costs of means of production remained at one of its highest levels in 2025," it said.
"It should be noted that the rate of employment growth in the private sector economy was the fastest recorded since April 2023," the study adds, pointing out that "efforts to strengthen the workforce were observed in all major sectors, with companies often highlighting increased staffing requirements due to improved customer demand."
In December, the volume of new orders "increased for the third consecutive month, with the rise being stronger than the trend in the series," despite "losing momentum compared to the highest figure in the last 17 months recorded in November."
"Companies indicated that the receipt of new work allowed for an increase in production, which rose in each of the last six months. The overall increase in business activity was moderate, with the most pronounced increases recorded among service providers and wholesale and retail companies," it reads.
The PMI index had risen from 49.1 in June to positive territory in July, at 50.7, but in August it fell back to a negative figure, to 49.9, and in September to 49.4, recovering in October to 50.4 points, in November to 50.8 and in December to 50.9.
PMI indicators above 50 points indicate an improvement in business conditions compared to the previous month, while indicators below that figure show a deterioration.
The study adds that with regard to the outlook for 2026, Mozambican companies are "very optimistic" and that the "outlook for the next 12 months was the strongest since last September and better than the average observed in 2025".
"Companies reported that forecasts of increased sales, capacity gains resulting from hiring more staff, new products and efficiency improvements would contribute to improving production over the next 12 months," the document notes.
Quoted in the study, Standard Bank Mozambique's chief economist, Fáusio Mussá, notes that the inflation forecast for the end of 2026 remains at 5.6% year-on-year, "supported by the prospects for stability in the US$/metical exchange rate".
"In a forward-looking analysis, the PMI suggests some recovery in business prospects, with the PMI sub-index of business expectations for the future rising in December, after falling in the previous two months. Most likely, respondents are taking into account the prospects that progress on liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects will support growth," Mussá points out.
For 2026, the chief economist adds, Mozambique's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 1.1%: "This indicates a slow recovery from our estimates of 0.7% growth in 2025. The likely closure of the Mozal aluminium smelter joint project at the end of the first quarter of 2026 increases pressure on an economy that continues to be affected by fiscal pressures and pressures associated with foreign exchange market liquidity".
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