Lisbon, Dec. 24, 2025 (Lusa) - Researcher Fernando Jorge Cardoso considers that the situation in Guinea-Bissau is “calm”, i.e. stagnant, one month after the military coup, but analyst Ana Lúcia Sá points out that repression is growing.
The professor at the Autonomous University of Lisbon, in an interview with Lusa, said he considered the military coup d'état of 26 November to be "successful", although it was a “strange” coup, in which the deposed president, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, had time to give interviews and left the country "calmly".
"The military showed unity and, despite protests from civil society, the government was dissolved - although some figures from it are now in the new transitional regime - the ballot boxes were “thrown out onto the street” and various pretexts were invoked for the coup," the university professor explains.
"I sincerely believe that the situation is a little, as they say in São Tomé and Príncipe, “leve-leve” (light-light). In other words, it is a situation that is neither moving forward nor backward, but rather the opposite."
The analyst argues that, internally, there is no force capable of opposing the military that has taken power, at least apparently. On the other hand, Guinea-Bissau's main financiers and donors - Portugal and the European Union - have condemned what happened but have not imposed sanctions.
In an interview with Lusa, university professor at ISCTE - Instituto Universitário de Lisboa, Ana Lúcia Sá, emphasises that the situation has worsened in terms of repression and violence and is becoming increasingly "suffocating".
"A member of the Movement for Democratic Alternation (Madem G-15) was brutally beaten for posting on Facebook that he supports any democratic decision and not coups. Two officials from the Guinea-Bissau League for Human Rights were also brutally beaten, and the climate is becoming increasingly suffocating," she warns.
For the researcher, there is no doubt that the deposed president "continues to rule from a distance", maintaining direct influence over the current executive, a phenomenon she considers "unparalleled in previous coups in the country", which has a history of coups and attempted coups.
For his part, Fernando Jorge Cardoso believes that there is a strong probability that Sissoco's influence will wane over time and that those who are "in the chair will come to like it", thus preventing him from returning to presidential duties.
Regarding the international reaction, Ana Lúcia Sá regrets that sanctions are not being applied to individuals - as is the case, for example, in Sudan - and that it is not possible to guarantee the release of "political hostages", namely the leader of the historic PAIGC (African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cabo Verde), Domingos Simões Pereira.
Fernando Jorge Cardoso explains that Guinea-Bissau does not have "destabilising weight", which is why it has only been suspended from international organisations.
"They condemned the coup d'état, the county was suspended from the international organisations to which it belonged, but, for example, it was not the subject of any decision by the United Nations Security Council," he said.
Specifically regarding Portugal, he argues that caution may be related to avoiding directly penalising the population, given the impact that suspending projects on the ground would have.
For her part, Ana Lúcia Sá emphasises that Portugal lacks an in-depth debate on its historical role and how it views its former colonies, which is reflected in its current response to this situation.
Another point that divides these analysts is the change of political system to a presidential regime.
Fernando Jorge Cardoso considers "a semi-presidential regime in a country marked by conflicts between the president, prime minister and parliament to be pathetic" and sees a possible positive legacy of this coup in an alleged future constitutional revision to a presidential system.
Ana Lúcia Sá argues that if this revision takes place, it will represent "a victory for Sissoco", who already aspired to this change, although she points out that only parliament - dissolved in December 2023 - has the legitimacy to do so.
As for the future, both agree that elections will possibly be held within one year.
The general, presidential and legislative elections on 23 November had passed without incident, but on the 26th, on the eve of the announcement of the official results, a shootout in Bissau preceded the seizure of power by the Military High Command, which appointed the transitional President, General Horta Inta-A.
The general announced that the transition period would last for a maximum of one year and appointed Ilídio Vieira Té, Embaló's former minister, as prime minister and minister of finance. A new transitional government has since been sworn in, with names from the deposed executive and five military personnel among the 23 ministers and five secretaries of state.
*** The Lusa agency's delegation in Guinea-Bissau has been suspended since August following the government's expulsion of representatives of the Portuguese media. Coverage is being provided remotely ***
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