London, Oct. 22, 2025 (Lusa) - Consultancy firm Oxford Economics said on Wednesday that oil company ExxonMobil is only likely to make a final investment decision on gas in Mozambique once the Cabo Delgado region has stabilised, pushing back the start of production to 2031.
"The risks of further delays have increased again due to the resurgence of terrorist attacks and, in our opinion, a final investment decision (FID) on ExxonMobil's Rovuma LNG project will not be concluded before the lifting of “force majeure” on Mozambique's gas projects and, consequently, first production from Rovuma LNG is not likely before 2031," write analysts from the African department of this British consultancy.
The analysis of the gas sector in Mozambique, sent to clients and accessed by Lusa, follows TotalEnergies' FID announcement on the new Coral Norte floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) Coral Norte, which joins the already approved Coral Sul project, and whose construction had been suspended following attacks attributed to terrorists in Cabo Delgado province, which led the company to declare “force majeure”.
"We continue to assume that security around Palma can be guaranteed and that TotalEnergies and the government will agree on an updated development plan and budget for the Mozambique LNG project to resume in the first half of 2026, with production starting in the second half of 2030," the analysts write.
Mozambique has three approved mega-development projects for the exploration of LNG reserves in the Rovuma basin, ranked among the largest in the world, off the coast of Cabo Delgado, including one by TotalEnergies (13 mtpa), which is in the process of resuming after suspension due to attacks in the region, and another by ExxonMobil (18 mtpa), which is awaiting a final investment decision, both on the Afungi peninsula.
So far, only Eni's Coral Sul has moved forward, and in early October, Coral Norte, offshore the province, was also secured. The rest are being developed onshore.
A study by the consulting firm Deloitte concluded that, in 2024, Mozambique's LNG reserves represent potential revenues of US$100 billion (€86.2 billion).
The partners in Area 4 of the Rovuma Basin, off Cabo Delgado, Eni, Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH), CNPC, Kogas and XRG signed, at the beginning of the month, the FID for that new US$7.2 billion (€6.2 billion) project, a copy of Coral Sul, also operated by Eni, which will double Mozambique's LNG production to seven million tonnes per annum (mtpa) from 2028.
Since October 2017, the province has faced attacks claimed by movements associated with the extremist group Islamic State, which have caused more than one million displaced persons and 349 deaths in 2024 alone, according to data from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, a US government institution that analyses conflicts in Africa.
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