Maputo, Aug. 12, 2025 (Lusa) - Prices in Mozambique suffered further deflation in July, for the fourth consecutive month and the eighth time in 15 months, influenced by the fall in fuel prices, according to data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) accessed by Lusa on Tuesday.
The INE's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July indicates that Mozambique "recorded a price drop of around 0.22%" compared to June, with the food and non-alcoholic beverages sector and transport once again standing out, contributing to the total monthly variation with negative 0.21 and 0.11 percentage points, respectively.
"Breaking down the monthly variation by product, it is worth noting the fall in the prices of tomatoes (8.7%), diesel (4.8%), petrol (1.5%), cabbage (6.4%), onions (4.7%) and lettuce (10.2%). These contributed to the total monthly variation with a negative 0.33 percentage points," it reads.
This is the eighth deflation in prices in Mozambique in less than a year and a half, after the CPI recorded a price drop of 0.11% in August, 0.05% in July, 0.21% in June and 0.38% in May 2024, in addition to 0.38% in April, 0.36% in May and 0.7% in June this year, repeated last month (0.22%).
The INE also notes that, when compared to 2024, the CPI indicates a year-on-year price increase in July of 3.96% (4.15% in June), mainly influenced by the food and non-alcoholic beverages divisions, as well as restaurants, hotels, cafés and similar establishments, which increased by 8.99% and 8.91% in one year, respectively.
Cumulative inflation for 2024, according to previous INE data, stood at 4.15%, compared to 5.3% in 2023, but below the peak of almost 13% reached in July 2022.
The government expects Mozambique to close 2025 with inflation around 7%.
The Bank of Mozambique estimates that annual inflation will continue to slow in the coming months, reflecting the recent decision to exempt some basic products from VAT and reduce road tolls by up to 60%.
“In the short term, the trend towards a slowdown in annual inflation is expected to continue, reflecting the impact of the VAT exemption on basic products (sugar, cooking oil and soap), the downward adjustment of water and road toll tariffs and the fall in food prices on the international market, in a context of stability of the metical,” according to the Economic Outlook and Inflation Prospects report published in May by Lusa.
The document also points out that the usual survey of economic agents “corroborates the prospects of a slowdown in annual inflation”, since the macroeconomic expectations of economic agents revealed in the May study "point to annual inflation of 4.90% in December 2025, which represents a downward revision of 3 basis points compared to the expectations disclosed in the April survey".
“However, considerable risks and uncertainties remain, mainly of a domestic nature, which pose challenges to the maintenance of this scenario, notably the impacts of the worsening fiscal situation, uncertainty about the speed of recovery of productive capacity and the supply of goods and services, as well as the effects of climate shocks”, the report adds.
PVJ/AYLS // AYLS
Lusa
