Lisbon, July 22, 2025 (Lusa) - In a report released on Tuesday, the think tank CEDESA recommends that, in light of Donald Trump’s “transactional and opportunistic” foreign policy, Angola choose between a “diplomacy of disinterest” or “appeasing the private interests” of the American president.
Cedesa - Association for Economic and Social Studies in Africa, which focuses on Angola, argues that, given Trump’s return to the US presidency, “Angola is facing a strategic dilemma that requires a realistic approach devoid of illusions”.
“The relationship between the two countries, which saw significant progress during the Biden administration — notably with investment in the Lobito Corridor and the recognition of Angola as a strategic partner — is now subject to the transactional and unpredictable logic that characterises Trump’s political style,” the document, entitled “Angola and the Trump Administration: Between the Trump Organization and the diplomacy of disinterest.”
In this regard, the think tank says it is “fundamental to recognise that the United States under Trump no longer has a coherent strategy for Africa. US foreign policy has become erratic, focused on immediate and personal interests, without a long-term vision for the continent.”
“Countries such as Angola may benefit from direct negotiations, but without guarantees of support in humanitarian, educational or public health areas. This short-term logic compromises the building of lasting relationships and puts African countries in a vulnerable position,” it points out.
Cedesa concludes that “the geopolitical implications of this strategic absence are profound”, with the “void left by the US” being “quickly filled by rival powers such as China and Russia, which have stepped up their investments in infrastructure, security and military training in Africa”.
Under the current US administration, the US favours ad hoc trade agreements, with a particular focus on the oil and mining sectors, revealing "a lack of interest in African dynamics and a preference for bilateral relations that directly favour the business interests of the President" of the United States.
Cedesa highlights as one of the "most obvious signs of this disconnect" the lack of relevant diplomatic appointments, namely the lack of appointments to important positions related to Africa, including that of undersecretary of state for African affairs and ambassador to the African Union.
Added to this is the “dismantling” of the US diplomatic structure, centralising African policy in the Office of the Special Envoy for African Affairs, which reports directly to the National Security Council rather than the State Department, which “reinforces the logic of political control and weakens traditional diplomacy”.
“Faced with this scenario, what can Angola do?” asks Cedesa, which puts forward two hypotheses: “maintain institutional relations and wait”, which it considers to be “diplomacy of disinterest”, or “appeal to Trump’s private interests”, which it classifies as “commercial pragmatism”.
In the first scenario, “one of the most sensible options Angola can adopt (…) is not to resist or confront, but simply to ignore”.
“It is a matter of maintaining formal and functional diplomatic relations with the United States, without investing political energy or strategic capital in a relationship that, at this moment, promises neither stability nor reciprocity,” it explains.
“Instead of trying to interpret or influence an erratic foreign policy, Angola can focus on deepening relations with partners that demonstrate commitment and long-term vision - such as the European Union, India, the Gulf countries and African blocs. Diplomacy of disinterest, in this case, is not passivity: it is focus,” it stresses.
In the second scenario, which it highlights as “more pragmatic” Cedesa states that Angola “could offer commercial opportunities to the Trump Organization as a way of guaranteeing attention and investment”, recalling that this is what Qatar and Vietnam did, with concrete results.
"For Angola, this approach could represent a strategic opportunity to attract direct and immediate investment in key sectors such as oil, mining and tourism," it explains, pointing out that by establishing partnerships with the Trump Organization, the country "could benefit from the brand’s international visibility, boost large-scale projects and position itself as a preferred destination for American investors."
Whatever the strategy of the Angolan authorities, "the key lies in balancing pragmatism with prudence," it concludes.
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