Maputo, March 24, 2025 (Lusa) - Mozambican analyst João Feijó warned on Monday of possible social discontent at the resumption of TotalEnergies' megaprojects in Cabo Delgado, which could be “capitalised on” by rebel groups that have been carrying out armed attacks in northern Mozambique since 2017.
"The local population is being deprived of jobs, in a scenario where pressure on land is increasing, where people are losing access to land, losing access to natural resources (...). The discontent that is created here is very great and this kind of discontent is capitalised on by these violent groups. Many individuals joined this group because they had no other alternative," he told Lusa.
The TotalEnergies project has been suspended since 2021, following the attack by insurgent groups on the town of Palma, close to the gas development, which took place between 24 March and 5 April of that year, leading to a halt in work and the withdrawal of workers, as well as dozens of deaths.
According to the analyst, local discontent is related to the resettlements and jobs at the megaproject which, although they exist, "are poorly paid and not enough to employ the majority of the local community", a scenario which, for Feijó, creates a "feeling of disenfranchisement" for locals in relation to those from outside the province, as well as fuelling the idea that the country is rich in natural resources, but that they don't benefit local communities.
"This violent group has the ability to adapt its discourse to local characteristics and tell young people what they like to hear in order to entice them to join the group and, in a scenario where this violent group is adapting its strategy of interaction and good relations with the local population, it is a risk that we are provoking the public in this way," said João Feijó.
Feijó is a researcher at the Observatório do Meio Rural (‘Rural Observatory’), a Mozambican non-governmental organisation (NGO), and has carried out several studies on armed violence in Cabo Delgado.
Mentioning a "large popular protest" this month outside the gates of TotalEnergies in Afungi, Feijó warned of a "complex" local impact of the resumption of gas exploration projects in Cabo Delgado, admitting, however, that there is "guaranteed security" in Afungi, although the surrounding region remains under threat.
"Naturally, the movements of the ‘Al-shababs’ can exploit and then capitalise on this dissatisfaction," said the analyst.
Financial rating agency Fitch believes that TotalEnergies' Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) megaproject in Mozambique will go ahead this year, following the approval of €4.3 billion in financing by the US Exim Bank.
"It will improve the prospects for the resumption of the huge project, which could have several positive benefits for Mozambique in the medium run," writes Fitch Ratings, in an assessment consulted today by Lusa.
On Thursday, the President of Mozambique, Daniel Chapo, thanked his US counterpart for approving the funding: "Your support plays a key role in advancing this crucial project. The Mozambique LNG project has the potential to generate 13 million tonnes of LNG per year, create 40,000 new jobs, including approximately 20,000 in the US."
TotalEnergies, leader of the Area 1 consortium, is developing the construction of a plant in Afungi, near Palma, to produce and export natural gas.
Since October 2017, gas-rich Cabo Delgado has been facing an armed rebellion, which has caused thousands of deaths and a humanitarian crisis, with more than a million people displaced.
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