ANA-MPA 01/11/2025

ANA-MPA - IOBE: Economic sentiment index almost unchanged in December

The economic climate decreased marginally in December, as according to an economic situation survey by the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE), the relative index stood at 106 from 106.2 points in the previous month. This marginal weakening came from manufacturing and retail trade, with construction, services and consumer confidence improving.

Overall for 2024 the average index moved to almost 108 points, a level higher than the corresponding 107.6 in 2023 and at the same time the highest since the financial crisis that started in 2008. This relatively higher level of the index comes from businesses, as generally satisfactory expectations were recorded during the year in most sectors. December is a special month as it includes the festive season, with activity mainly in the service and retail sectors.

In the retail trade, however, more conservative valuations were formulated for the course of demand. In services, it appears that the broader space of various business activities led by the consulting services sector was moving strongly upwards, in part because the projects of the Recovery Fund were feeding the market with important projects. However, the international uncertainties seem to mainly concern industry, the most extroverted sector of the economy, as protectionist policies may be strengthened in the near future. The construction sector maintained its momentum, albeit with problems in finding a workforce. On the household side, expectations improved for December, but overall, the consumer confidence index worsened on average in 2024 compared to 2023.

Inflation, which continued during the year, although reduced, and the related problem of high prices were still have a strong effect, although the reduction in unemployment created incomes for more households. In more detail:

- in manufacturing, the negative balance of estimates for orders and demand intensified slightly, estimates for inventories strengthened while positive forecasts for production in the coming months weakened.

- in construction, the negative forecasts for the work programme of companies eased, while at the same time the positive forecasts for employment strengthened significantly

- in retail trade, estimates for current sales were easing significantly, with inventories leveling off and forecasts for near-term sales unchanged

- in services, positive estimates for the current state of business improve significantly, while estimates for current demand strengthen slightly, with forecasts for short-term demand developments moving strongly upwards

- in consumer confidence, households' negative forecasts for the country's economic situation declined, while the corresponding ones for their own economic situation were alleviated. At the same time, forecasts for major markets strengthened marginally, while the intention to save weakened.