Macau, Jan. 10, 2025 (Lusa) - The University of Macau (UM) has said that it expects Macau's gross domestic product to grow by 7.7% in 2025, in the face global economic uncertainties.
"The global economic outlook faces downside risks due to the significant slowdown in China's economic growth and the uncertainties brought about by the economic policies of several countries," the UM said in a report released on Thursday.
According to the report, the Chinese territory's GDP is set to grow by 7.7% in 2025, based on a forecast 7.6% increase in service exports and a 3.1% increase in private consumption expenditure.
The inflation rate is expected to remain low, at 1.1%, while the overall unemployment rate will be 1.8%, with the rate for residents of Macau expected to be 2.3%.
The report also estimates that public revenue will total 111.8 billion patacas (€13.55 billion), as the "economy of the Special Administrative Region has gradually returned to normal after the Covid-19 pandemic."
In 2024, the city saw a growth in visitor arrivals, to a total of 9.20 million, an increase of 11.1% on the previous year, but with this decelerating in the second and third quarters of the year.
Due to the slowdown in the growth of visitor arrivals, real exports of services in the third quarter of 2024 were up just 1.3% on the year to 72.0 billion patacas (€8.73 billion).
Non-residents' real expenditure on gambling in Macau - the world's biggest casino destination - was 42.9 billion patacas (€5.2 billion), an increase of 11.2% on the previous year, when while non-residents' real expenditure other than on gambling was 20.1 billion patacas (€2.44 billion), a decrease of 14.5% on the previous year.
As far as domestic demand is concerned, both private consumption and investment grew steadily, with real private consumption expenditure amounting to 28.9 billion patacas (€3.5 billion), an increase of 1.9% on the previous year, and gross fixed capital formation was 16.0 billion patacas (€1.94 billion), an increase of 16% on the previous year.
Prices remained stable, with the consumer price inflation rate from January to November 2024 standing at 0.8%.
The labour market recorded an overall unemployment rate of 1.7% in both the second and third quarters of 2024, and the unemployment rate for Macau residents stood at 2.3%.
The overall median monthly salary in the third quarter of 2024 was 18,000 patacas (€2,181), surpassing the 17,000 patacas (€2,060) recorded in the same period of 2019.
According to the report, which cites forecasts from the International Monetary Fund, the world economy is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024 as well as in 2025.
"Overall, the world is expected to maintain stable economic growth; however, uncertainties caused by the economic policies of several countries have led to downside risks in the global economic outlook," the IMF said, quoted by the UM.
Also according to the IMF, mainland China's economic growth has slowed significantly, due to the negative impact of structural change and continued weak expectations, with a growth rate of 4.6% in the third quarter of 2024, and "future trade frictions with the United States could add further uncertainty to the economy."
JW/ARO // ARO.
Lusa
