Porto, Portugal, Sept. 11, 2024 (Lusa) - A study by the Faculty of Economics at the University of Porto has concluded that Portugal needs more immigration if it wants to increase its economic growth and standard of living in order to "join the group of richest countries" in the European Union by 2033.
In a statement, the Faculty of Economics of the University of Porto (FEP) said on Wednesday that the study contradicts the idea that "immigrants push nationals out of the labour market".
The study concludes that the integration of immigrants broadens investment and employment opportunities for everyone, in addition to their contribution to social security.
"In Portugal, we need to take advantage of the phases of greatest growth, such as the current one (driven by temporary factors such as the Recovery and Resilience Plan - the EU bazooka funds for post pandemic economic recovery - and the tourism boom) to retain the immigrants attracted by this dynamic before it runs out," says Óscar Afonso, director of the FEP, quoted in the statement.
The study by the Economic, Business and Public Policy Studies office was carried out as part of the Economy & Business publication.
In this, the last chapter of the publication, the evolution of the population and its components is estimated, such as the natural growth rate and the migration growth rate in the countries of the European Union between 1999 and 2022.
The breakdown of demographic dynamics in Portugal in the period under analysis revealed "favourable non-economic factors in most of the components", except for the immigration rate, which is why some measures are suggested.
Among the suggestions is the need to "restore the quality of the National Health System (SNS), with more investment and better management".
In the area of health, the study also points to the need to invest in health literacy and prevention, suggesting the creation of a tax on sugar, salt, preservatives and other foods, which would be earmarked for the SNS.
At the same time, the study recommends strengthening the capacity to retain immigrants, through training and strengthening the Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (AIMA), and counteracting "the weak capacity to attract immigrants", especially given Portugal's peripheral position in Europe.
To this end, it is suggested that agreements be established with the Portuguese Language African Countries (PALOP) and others, "which would also help to reverse the low birth rate in Portugal, since the fertility rate of immigrants is higher than that of residents".
"Without policy changes, the predicted annual economic growth of 1.11% until 2033 causes an estimated drop in the population of 5.8%, well above the 2.1% loss projected in the 2024 ‘Ageing Report’," it notes.
According to the study, if the implementation of structural reforms pushes Portugal to grow by 3% a year, "the minimum to reach half of the richest countries in the European Union by 2033", the rise in the average immigration rate to 1.321% allows "the negative natural balance to be offset and the population to be stabilised".
"A more dynamic economy and a higher standard of living presuppose that Portugal organises itself to welcome an even greater influx of immigrants in the future in a controlled manner, including mechanisms linked to economic evolution, such as the prior requirement of a work contract and the consultation of companies' needs for workers, accompanied by adequate supervision," notes Óscar Afonso.
The study also shows that, since the beginning of the millennium, emigration in the countries of the European Union is "mainly of immigrant people" and that the emigration of residents for economic reasons occurs mainly in countries with low economic growth and low initial living standards.
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