Lisbon, Sept. 24, 2026 (Lusa) - The Public Finance Council (CFP) has raised its forecast for the Portuguese economy's growth this year to 2.2% and maintained its 2027 estimate at 1.8%, according to projections released Thursday.
The projection for this year, assuming no policy changes, represents an upward revision compared with the April forecast (1.6%) «reflecting the economy's resilience in the face of Atlantic storms and the energy shock linked to the conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which caused a severe disruption to global oil supplies», the CFP explained in a statement.
According to the agency's calculations, the impact of the war in Iran on prices has reduced the trade balance by 0.4% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The second half of the year presents «challenging external factors», such as the resumption of military operations in the Persian Gulf, the drought affecting around half of the European Union's territory, and the European Central Bank's more restrictive stance following the interest rate rise.
Nevertheless, according to the CFP, the increase in public investment, estimated at around 22.3% in nominal terms, coupled with the completion of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), «should help to partially mitigate the impact of external shocks».
Furthermore, the composition of growth, underpinned by private consumption, «suggests that households have used their savings to absorb, in part, the rise in fuel costs, at a time when the labour market is at full employment».
This projection is more optimistic than the government's most recent estimate, which points to 2% growth in the economy this year.
Growth of 1.8% is projected for 2027, 1.7% for 2028–2029 and 1.6% for 2030.
As the institution explains, «with less favourable net migration and an ageing population limiting the growth of the working-age population, employment growth will slow to 1.1% in 2027, and stabilise at around zero growth in 2030, whilst the unemployment rate is expected to remain at around 5.7% of the labour force over the period 2027–2030», whilst the projected population trend provides less of a boost to private consumption.
Consequently, growth «will depend essentially on productivity gains», the CFP warned.
The institution also points out that these projections are based on population and employment data series that have not yet been updated following the revision of INE's resident population estimates.
MES/ADB // ADB.
Lusa
