Lisbon, Sept. 4, 2026 (Lusa) - The Forum for Competitiveness think tank stated on Friday that the Portuguese economy would only grow by less than 2% this year if «a lot goes wrong».
«With growth in the first half of the year close to 2.5%, a great deal would have to go wrong – which is not the base-case scenario – for full-year growth to fall well below 2%,» reads the August economic outlook report published today by the association.
Following a fall in the unemployment rate from 6.1% to 5.3% in the second quarter of this year – the lowest figure since the series began in 2011, accompanied by growth in both the working population and employment – the Forum for Competitiveness considers that the «least positive aspect» is the low productivity of the new jobs created.
«With employment rising faster than GDP [Gross Domestic Product], we are seeing a fall in average productivity, which probably means we are creating low-productivity jobs,» it states.
Specifically with regard to employment in public administration, the Forum notes that, in the second quarter, «it reached a new record of 768,000, up a further 1% year-on-year, mainly due to growth in local government», adding that, at a time of labour shortages, it is «difficult to understand why the public sector is competing in this way with the private sector».
Following Statistics Portugal (INE)'s Tourism Satellite Account, which found that tourism's share of GDP has been falling slightly – from 16.3% in 2023 to 16.2% in 2024 and to 16.1% in 2025, the association points out that these figures «call into question the idea that GDP has been growing largely thanks to tourism».
«Furthermore, given the relatively modest figures for 2026, it is possible that this sector will continue to lose ground in terms of its share of GDP this year», it adds.
Looking ahead to the coming quarters, the Forum notes that the most recent figures «do not provide consistent information», but predicts that «the third quarter is losing momentum», considering this to be «almost inevitable given the very strong growth in the second quarter».
«The fall in investment in the second quarter is somewhat surprising given that we are at the end of the PRR [Recovery and Resilience Plan], although that decline is concentrated in ‘Other Machinery', which suggests that the programme is not managing to drive economic growth,» it notes.
In this regard, it says «we should not expect investment to be particularly dynamic in the coming quarters either».
As for exports, the second-quarter figures «were very favourable», but the association points to the «high volatility» that this variable has been exhibiting as a reason «to temper some of the optimism for the rest of the year».
As for the international economic climate, it maintains that «optimism about the second half of the year seems to have faded, with the resurgence of hostilities in the Middle East, which appear to rule out the possibility of a swift end to the conflict».
«Even so, energy prices have remained well below the highs recorded between March and May, although prices for refined products have struggled to fall,» it notes, predicting that, in the current climate, the European Central Bank (ECB) «is likely to raise its rates as early as September».
The Forum for Competitiveness is a private, non-profit association, founded in February 1994, which acts as a think tank dedicated to the study of the economy in Portugal.
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