Vila Real, Portugal, July 14, 2026 (Lusa) - The Douro region expects to produce 25% to 30% more wine than in 2025, and the harvest will benefit from favourable weather conditions in the run-up to the grape harvest, such as moderate temperatures, which can help vines avoid water stress.
The Association for the Development of Douro Viticulture (ADVID), based in Vila Real, presented the production forecast for the 2026 harvest in the Douro Demarcated Region on Tuesday.
ADVID’s director-general, Luís Marcos, said that the outlook for this year’s harvest is “a little uncertain” and explained that the forecasts are based on the pollen count method, using pollen collected during the vines’ flowering phase in the three sub-regions of the Douro, Baixo Corgo, Cima Corgo and Douro Superior, and therefore do not take into account post-flowering factors that affect production.
For this reason, ADVID also held an interim review with its members on Monday to “understand the impact of what happens after flowering”.
“Given that the production forecast range varies between 243,000 and 272,000 pipas, we anticipate that production may be close to the lower limit, and could even fall below this production threshold,” concluded the spokesperson.
The reported production in the Douro in 2025 was 178,000 'pipas' - 550-litre barrels. Over the last 25 years, this was the region’s second-lowest yield.
“We are looking at growth of 25% to 30% compared with the previous year,” said Luís Marcos.
In the Douro, the saying “the harvest isn’t over until the baskets are washed” seems increasingly apt, as the final harvest will depend heavily on the weather conditions prevailing right up until the grapes are picked.
“We are talking about a year whose conditions have made it somewhat unpredictable as to what the impact on production will be,” stated the director-general of ADVID.
The winter was extremely wet; the spring was hot and dry; May saw 12 days of a heatwave, and June saw 10 days as well.
“The vines were well-watered until the end of June; at the moment, we can see that they are experiencing mild water stress and that, if these hot conditions worsen or persist, they could have an impact on the final yield,” he noted.
Very high temperatures can challenge berry development, and, as he pointed out, last week there were already “some instances of sunscald” on the grapes.
There were also more localised instances of hail, and the vine’s growing cycle has been brought forward by 10 to 12 days, which could lead to a “slight bringing forward of the harvest”.
However, Luís Marcos pointed out that “ripening conditions are also highly dependent on the weather”, meaning that “very high temperatures can slow down the rate of ripening” and “the harvest may not go ahead earlier than expected”.
This was not a year with significant pressure from downy mildew, the main disease affecting the early stages of the growing season and which has a major impact on production; however, producers will need to remain vigilant for outbreaks of powdery mildew and the green leafhopper.
The green leafhopper is, according to Luís Marcos, “a pest that has been becoming increasingly prevalent in the region, particularly in the final stage of the cycle, and which may have some impact on the vine’s vegetative development and, consequently, on its quality potential”.
Harvest forecasts are indicators that help companies draw up business strategies, and the inter-professional council of the Douro and Porto Wine Institute (IVDP) assesses them to determine the ‘benefício’ – that is, the quantity of must that each producer may turn into Port.
In the Douro, the allocation fell from 104,000 pipas (550 litres each) in 2023 to 90,000 in 2024 and 75,000 in 2025, representing a reduction of 29,000 pipas over three years.
PLI/ADB // ADB.
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