Maputo, July 9, 2026 (Lusa) - Almost two million Mozambicans are at risk of needing food assistance between December and January, according to a report by FEWS NET, which cites armed conflict, the effects of flooding and adverse weather conditions as risk factors.
In its latest projection, released on Thursday, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) estimates that between 1.5 and 1.99 million people will require food assistance during this period due to below-average food stocks following a poor 2026 agricultural harvest and disruptions to livelihoods caused by the insurgency in parts of the provinces of Cabo Delgado and Nampula.
The organisation, an international early warning network for food crises funded by the US Government, responsible for monitoring and forecasting food insecurity and famine in various countries, identifies northern and southern Mozambique as the areas of greatest concern.
According to the analysis, despite the current harvest season, the areas affected by the armed insurgency in Cabo Delgado and northern Nampula are expected to remain in a "Crisis" (IPC Phase 3) at least until January 2027, due to the continued activity of armed groups, population displacements and restrictions on access to agricultural land, markets and sources of income.
FEWS NET notes that, between April and June, armed groups intensified attacks in the regions of Nangade and Macomia, subsequently expanding their operations to Chiúre, Ancuabe and Montepuez, all in Cabo Delgado.
Citing data from the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), the report indicates that more than 23,000 people had been displaced by mid-June in the regions of Ancuabe, Montepuez and Chiúre.
In the centre and south of the country, the organisation forecasts a temporary improvement in food security from July onwards, with some areas moving from "Crisis" to "Stress" (IPC Phase 2), thanks to second crop harvests, post-flood assistance and seasonal earnings. Nevertheless, it warns that some of these regions may return to a crisis situation between October and January, when locally produced food runs out and dependence on the market increases.
The floods in January affected more than 700,000 people and damaged around 440,000 hectares of agricultural land in the provinces of Maputo, Gaza and Sofala. Between February and March, prolonged periods of drought and further episodes of heavy rain exacerbated the damage to crops and livestock across the country.
The report adds that agricultural recovery remains slow due to soil degradation, prolonged waterlogging and limited access to seeds – factors which have delayed planting and harvesting for the second agricultural season by more than a month.
FEWS NET also warns that the El Niño phenomenon is already underway and is expected to continue at least until January 2027, forecasting a late and below-average start to the next rainy season in southern and central Mozambique, as well as above-normal temperatures – conditions that could reduce agricultural production and seasonal employment opportunities for the poorest households, a situation exacerbated by rising food prices.
According to the organisation, maize prices in the south of the country were, in May, between 25% and 60% above the five-year average, whilst rice prices were between 20% and 40% above the average. Annual inflation accelerated to 7.2% in May, the highest figure since May 2023, driven mainly by rising fuel and transport prices.
In May, around 180,000 people received humanitarian food aid, mainly in Cabo Delgado and Gaza. Meanwhile, flood response operations had reached approximately 300,000 people in the provinces of Maputo, Gaza and Sofala by mid-June.
PVJ/AYLS // AYLS
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