Coimbra, Portugal, July 3, 2026 (Lusa) - Wine has become less structurally significant in the global market, with production exceeding consumption; the surplus is equivalent to three years’ worth of consumption, according to a study by the Miguel Torga Higher Institute (ISMT) in Coimbra.
“Between 2000 and 2023, this imbalance has led to a global surplus of 717 million hectolitres in cellars around the world, a volume equivalent to more than three years’ global consumption awaiting disposal,” said Maria Cunha, a lecturer and researcher at ISMT.
According to research by ISMT and two Ukrainian universities, which the Lusa news agency consulted, wine now accounts for 12.5% of global consumption, whereas in 1960 it accounted for more than 30%.
Maria Cunha emphasised that this structural mismatch “reflects the inertia of supply”, given that global consumption has fallen by an annual average of 1.75% since 2018, while production has declined by 0.3%.
“The sector has continued to produce at rates that the market can no longer absorb,” she noted.
The study analysed trends in wine production, consumption and imports across 27 countries, accounting for around 86% of global consumption and 80% of the sector’s global imports.
The researchers divided the markets into two main groups – self-sufficient producing countries and countries dependent on imports – to assess how the decline in international demand has altered the economic balance of the global wine market between 2000 and 2023.
According to the researcher, “the major opportunity at present is for the sector to diversify beyond a group of importing countries”, such as the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany, which account for 45% of global consumption, 66% of global volume and 68% of the financial value of the international wine trade.
The research highlighted the case of the Chinese market, which, between 2017 and 2023, saw consumption fall from 19.3 to 6.8 million hectolitres, linked to “the difficulty of establishing regular consumption habits in a market where wine accounts for only around 0.3% of total alcohol consumed”.
Even if China had maintained the growth rates recorded between 2005 and 2017, this would no longer be sufficient to reverse the global trend of falling consumption and imports, the analysis concluded.
Pressure from the global market has begun to affect the main producers, with France approving the grubbing-up of around 4% of its vineyard area to reduce the structural surplus in supply.
Maria Cunha noted that Portugal is among the countries most affected by the slowdown in international demand, given that self-sufficient wine-producing countries account for 78% of global production but account for only 40% of global consumption.
The study indicated that this trend is set to continue until 2030, with the authors estimating that, should market behaviour remain unchanged, consumption could fall to levels close to 186.5 million hectolitres, whilst wine-producing countries will remain under pressure to reduce surpluses and reposition the sector.
“The sector will have to adapt to a more selective market, one that is less volume-driven and increasingly dependent on the differentiation and added value that each brand can associate with its wines,” they said.
Maria Cunha stated that “the limit to global wine trade no longer lies in tariffs or trade barriers, but in demand itself”.
They also emphasised that a growth strategy based solely on price, volume, and the continuous expansion of exports has become increasingly difficult to sustain, making a focus on higher-value-added segments a means of structural survival for many export-dependent producers.
The study “Wine Import in the Context of Transforming Global Consumption” was conducted by researchers from ISMT, Oles Honchar Dnipro National University, and Odesa Polytechnic National University in Ukraine.
MYME/ADB // ADB.
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