Lisbon, June 25, 2026 (Lusa) - Rating agency DBRS has revised its forecast for Portuguese GDP growth in 2026 to 1.9%, down two percentage points from its March estimate, according to an analysis released on Thursday.
For 2027, the rating agency’s forecast for national GDP growth has risen by 10 basis points, from 1.8% to 1.9%.
The unemployment rate remains steady at 5.9% in both 2026 and 2027, in line with the previous March projection.
In its analysis of global macroeconomic scenarios, DBRS anticipates moderate growth in advanced economies, reflecting expectations that energy-related geopolitical disruptions will be ‘contained’.
“Growth in advanced economies remains modest but resilient, particularly in Europe, whilst the US, China and India continue to underpin global activity,” states the agency’s assessment.
The US is highlighted as “an exception among the major advanced economies, whilst India and China stand out among emerging markets”.
DBRS notes that global growth, particularly in the US and China, has been fuelled by the “technological arms race”, which is driving strong demand for investment in technology, especially AI, energy infrastructure, and the aerospace and defence industries.
In Europe, DBRS forecasts that France, Germany, Italy and the UK will grow by between 0.6% and 0.9% in 2026, with a slight acceleration to between 0.7% and 1.2% expected in 2027.
“The Iberian Peninsula, however, continues to outperform, alongside Ireland, Greece, parts of Central and Eastern Europe and some Nordic countries,” the report stated.
The analysis also notes that the impact of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on growth and inflation “has been limited to date”, but, if it continues, “the risks remain skewed to the downside”.
Despite modestly lower forecasts over the last three months resulting from the war in the Middle East and the European Central Bank’s interest rate increases, “inflation remains above monetary policy targets in many countries, and unemployment remains at historically moderate or low levels”.
“The forecasts also point to moderate growth in most of the economies we have assessed, and analysts have made only modest downward revisions to the forecasts to date. This appears to reflect expectations that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be of limited duration or impact, or at least will be substantially offset by fiscal support for households and businesses affected by the disruptions," the note added.
CT/ADB // ADB.
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