London, June 11, 2026 (Lusa) - The analyst at the credit rating agency Fitch, who monitors Angola’s economy, highlighted on Thursday the opportunity to maintain budgetary discipline ahead of the elections scheduled for August 2027.
“What we monitor most closely is the historical pattern of rising expenditure, pay rises for civil servants and a pause in the reform of fuel subsidies, which is the most visible measure of budgetary restraint,” analyst Gabriel Comolet said during a seminar on the evolution of African economies.
The meeting on ‘Will the positive momentum in African ratings survive adverse geopolitical headwinds? reviewed the evolution of ratings in the region, including Angola, Cabo Verde and Mozambique, all of which are below investment grade.
Regarding Angola, one of the four countries analysed in detail at the meeting, Fitch Ratings highlighted the importance of maintaining disciplined public spending during the election period and noted that elections are becoming increasingly competitive.
“The electoral landscape in Angola is increasingly competitive; UNITA has gained ground in every election, and the 2022 results were the closest since the end of the civil war, with the opposition expressing concern about the integrity of the electoral process,” Gabriel Comolet said, adding that “if historical trends hold, we foresee an increase in spending.”
In its latest assessment of the country, conducted a month ago, Fitch Ratings maintained Angola’s rating at B-, with a stable outlook, highlighting the opportunity for disciplined spending ahead of next year’s elections.
“The stable outlook reflects our view that the risks to the rating are broadly balanced; higher oil prices could generate windfall revenues, supporting fiscal consolidation and foreign reserves, but this upside potential is offset by the risk of expenditure slippage, particularly in the run-up to the 2027 elections,” the agency said at the time.
In the note, analysts also warn that “the expected recovery in oil production remains uncertain and could potentially offset some of the gains”.
Fitch Ratings decided to maintain its assessment of the country’s ability to honour its financial commitments, keeping the rating at B-, below investment grade, or ‘junk’ as it is commonly referred to, due to “weak governance indicators, high inflation, high levels of foreign currency public debt and one of the highest dependencies on raw materials among the countries assessed”.
MBA/ADB // ADB.
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