Brazzaville, May 27, 2026 (Lusa) - The African Development Bank (AfDB) on Wednesday forecast that the primary and secondary sectors would drive Guinea-Bissau's economic growth to 4.9% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027.
The African Economic Outlook report, which the bank presented at its annual meeting in Brazzaville, states that "economic prospects remain favourable" after real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth reached 5.0% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2024.
The bank expects the primary sector (set to grow 3.8% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027) and the secondary sector (set to grow 8.3% in 2026 and 9.6% in 2027) to drive Guinea-Bissau's expansion over these two years.
The AfDB said "an increase in public investment, goods exports, and final consumption" also supported this trend.
The bank expects inflation to "remain controlled” at 2.5% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027.
The institution forecasts "a gradual reduction” in the deficit to 3.6% of GDP in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, saying strict fiscal management would sustain this decline.
The AfDB, however, warned that "these forecasts are subject to downside risks, including the Middle East conflict, with oil prices above $100 per barrel and severe disruptions to trade routes, persistent political instability and state fragility, dependence on the cashew sector (the country's main export commodity), and exposure to climate shocks."
The AfDB report, "African Economic Outlook 2026: Mobilising Africa’s Development Financing at Scale in a Fragmented World," forecasts that Africa's economic growth would slow to 4.2% in 2026, or to 4% if the Middle East conflict persists.
The AfDB Group presented the report at its annual meeting, where representatives from the 81 member countries – including heads of state, finance ministers, planning ministers, and central bank governors – would analyse the 2025 progress and the major challenges ahead.
The theme for the 2026 meetings, which run until Friday in Brazzaville, the capital of the Republic of Congo, is "Mobilising Africa’s Development Financing at Scale in a Fragmented World."
Health measures against Ebola mark the 2026 meetings. Authorities reinforced these measures in Brazzaville, which is divided from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) by a river.
The bank also altered the format of the meetings, adopting "a hybrid format, allowing all delegates to fully participate in the proceedings, regardless of travel and logistical conditions"
*** Lusa travelled at the invitation of the African Development Bank (AfDB) ***
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