Lisbon, April 15, 2026 (Lusa) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downwards its forecast for Portugal’s budget balance, from zero (0.0%) in its October 2025 report to a deficit of 0.1%, in forecasts released on Wednesday.

According to the document, the IMF estimated a deficit of 0.1% in 2026, which is set to worsen to 0.2% in 2027, 0.5% in 2028 and 0.9% in 2029.

In the Fiscal Monitor (a twice-yearly report surveying global public finance developments, assessing medium-term fiscal outlooks, and recommending policies for sustainable public finances), the institution also forecasted deficits of over 1% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2030 and 2031.

The government had projected, in the 2026 state budget, a surplus of 0.1% in 2026, but the finance minister, Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, has acknowledged the risk of a deficit.

The IMF explained that the projections for 2026 “are based on the budget approved by the authorities, adjusted to reflect the institution’s team’s macroeconomic forecast”. For the coming years, however, the projections are based on a scenario of unchanged policies.

The institution said that European governments had to reconcile defence commitments with the pressures of an ageing population through a concrete shift in spending priorities.

The IMF said that containing the automatic growth of spending on healthcare and pharmaceuticals was essential to protect public investment in Portugal.

The report said that Portugal, together with several EU member states, had activated escape clauses to the deficit rules to facilitate higher military expenditure, and that such costs were likely to remain persistent, underlining the fiscal dilemmas countries with limited budgetary flexibility face.

Regarding the Portuguese public debt, the IMF estimated that the ratio would fall to 85.6% of GDP in 2026, continuing a downward trajectory until it reaches 74.4% in 2031.

MES/MYAL // AYLS

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