Maputo, 19 March 2026 (Lusa) – Mozambican analyst João Feijó considered today that Rwanda's warning to withdraw its contingent from Cabo Delgado is "diplomatic pressure" to secure funding, alerting that such a departure would cause "great chaos" in northern Mozambique.
"It is more of a diplomatic pressure because the Rwandans are not leaving. In fact, no one is interested in the Rwandans leaving," Feijó told Lusa. He is a researcher at the Observatory of the Rural Environment (OMR), a Mozambican NGO with extensive published work on the conflict in Cabo Delgado.
Rwanda's foreign minister, Olivier Nduhungirehe warned on Sunday that the Rwandan deployment fighting terrorism will leave Cabo Delgado if there are no guarantees of "sustainable funding" for the operation.
This warning comes as the European Union (EU) financial support for the operation nears its scheduled end in May, following 36 months and disbursements of €40 million. It also coincides with the US – which finances the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) megaproject led by French company TotalEnergies – imposing sanctions on the Rwandan Defence Forces (RDF) due to the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
According to the analyst, the gas megaprojects in the province rely on the Rwandan contingent, which has supported the fight against terrorism since 2021, to ensure the security of infrastructure and facilities.
"Embassies are also attentive to security in the province; it is in their interest to guarantee the safety of mineral resource extraction, which is strategic for stabilising prices in global markets. So, I believe they are also not interested in Rwanda leaving," he said. He noted that for these entities, the Rwandans are an affordable alternative for territorial security, while being efficient and respecting international human rights rules.
The withdrawal of troops is also not in the interest of the state of Mozambique, he pointed out, as it must guarantee the security of its provinces. Furthermore, it does not serve the Rwandans themselves, who wish to internationalise their capital and present themselves to the world as a viable alternative for securing large economic investments.
"So it is just a bluff over who will pay: that is the issue. But I believe an alternative will appear, because the Rwandans' departure would cause great chaos there, as Mozambique has not yet managed to have an efficient armed force, despite not being as apparently disorganised as it was in 2020-2021, especially since today it faces less pressure than it did," Feijó concluded.
Mozambique's president said on Thursday that he expects to renew the missions supporting Mozambique in the fight against terrorism in Cabo Delgado, both from Rwanda and the EU assistance, underlining that they are still "on track."
Support for the RDF ends in May, with no negotiations currently underway for its continuity. A source from the EU delegation in Mozambique previously stated: "As of now, no additional measures are planned under this mechanism beyond this period."
Since October 2017, the gas-rich province of Cabo Delgado has faced an armed rebellion with attacks claimed by movements associated with the Islamic State extremist group, which are estimated to have caused approximately 6,500 deaths.
More than 2,000 Rwandan troops collaborate in security operations with Mozambican forces, primarily in the region near the TotalEnergies gas megaproject. Construction resumed in January, nearly five years after being suspended due to terrorist attacks, with the oil company emphasising the importance of the agreements for the RDF presence in that area.
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