Maputo, March 11, 2026 (Lusa) - Electricity production in Mozambique fell by 25% in 2025, due to a lack of water at the Cahora-Bassa Hydroelectric Plant (HCB) following the "worst rainfall record" in 43 years, according to government information.
In a 2025 budget execution report, the government noted that the country's overall electricity production was 14,408,381 megawatt-hours (MWh), 76.7% of the annual plan and 25.4% lower than in 2024.
"The low production was largely due to the poor performance of hydroelectric power stations, which in the period under review recorded an execution rate of 72.3% and a decrease of 30.7% compared to the same period in 2024," it said.
It added that the country "is the largest producer of hydroelectricity in Southern Africa" and that "almost all of its production comes from HCB", with 2,075 megawatts (MW), "complemented by other small dams under the management" of Eletricidade de Moçambique.
In 2025, according to the report, hydroelectric power stations generated 11,207,934 MWh, 30.7% less than in 2024, a performance explained "to a large extent by the effects of the El Niño phenomenon that has been affecting the HCB power station since 2023".
"The lack of rainfall in the Zambezi basin [where HCB operates] reduced the availability of water in the country's main reservoirs (Corumana, Mavuzi and Chicamba), culminating in the 2024/25 hydrological year with the worst rainfall record in the last 43 years," it said.
The lack of energy availability is at the heart of a dispute that will lead Mozal, the country's largest industry, to suspend operations on 15 March, affecting around 25,000 direct and indirect jobs.
Australia's South32 considers the energy tariff proposed for the Mozal aluminium smelter in Maputo to be "totally unsustainable," thus justifying its closure, without ruling out reactivating Mozambique's largest industry if conditions change.
In a recent call with Australian investors, the transcript of which Lusa accessed on 6 March, regarding the presentation of the latest results of the group that leads Mozal and other smelters, CEO Graham Kerr explained that Eskom's "only formal offer" for energy supply was almost $100 per megawatt-hour (MWh), when "outside China, less than 1%" of smelters have contracts above $50 per MWh.
The proposal, he said, would make the operation in Maputo, one of the largest smelters in Africa, "totally unsustainable," as energy represents "a third of Mozal's cost structure."
This smelter needs 950 MWh to operate 24 hours a day, still guaranteed by HCB, via South Africa's Eskom, whose supply contract ends this month, and South32 acknowledged a maximum amount of $51: "For us, that was the limit. Eskom cannot match that and has never come close."
He added that Mozambique's official explanation is the drought in the HCB reservoir in Tete: "Around this time last year, they started telling us that after two years of severe drought, they did not have the capacity to supply Mozal's energy needs. It would probably take at least two years for the reservoir to refill, and then they still have some maintenance they need to do, which means we probably won't have full power for the next two to four years."
The plant will be shut down for maintenance on 15 March, at a cost of $5 million per year, with an "estimated closure and rehabilitation" cost of $119 million, said Kerr, saying that Mozal has always worked "closely" with Mozambique's government.
"We would not consider moving forward with a total closure until the HCB energy contract and its future were clarified, because when they return to full operation, they will have a lot of energy and few customers. Therefore, this may become viable again in the future," said Kerr, warning that the “challenge” of "restarting a smelter" is "very difficult."
PVJ/ADB // ADB.
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