Lisbon, Mar. 2, 2026 (Lusa) - Galp believes that the escalation of the conflict with Iran is increasing uncertainty in the energy markets, but it has not recorded any “material impacts” on its operations, having adopted preventive measures such as redirecting oil shipments.
During a conference call with analysts to present the 2025 results, co-CEO Maria João Carioca said the company's portfolio benefits from a geographic positioning that limits exposure to the most volatile areas of the international oil market.
However, according to Carioca, the oil company has adopted preventive measures, including redirecting its own oil shipments (“equity oil”) to reduce logistical risks and ensure supply continuity.
In a context of high uncertainty, Carioca stressed that it will be essential to maintain “a clear focus on operational performance and disciplined financial management.”
In this context, the oil company has chosen to limit the horizon of its financial forecasts. “We are limiting our guidance to 2026 only,” she said, adding that the company will update the market when there is greater strategic visibility.
Galp is taking a cautious approach for next year, based on a Brent oil price of $60 per barrel.
When asked about its exploration and production strategy, the company indicated that it favours oil opportunities, stating that gas is not currently an area of active investment or a priority in its portfolio.
“Gas is not an area in which we are actively investing and seeking opportunities,” it said.
The suspension of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which separates Iran in the north from the Emirates and Oman in the south, just 30 kilometres away, will have an impact on oil prices, which could exceed $100 per barrel, but the effects depend on the duration of the closure, and whether the conflict spreads, analysts say.
“The coordinated attacks by Israel and the US against Iran are explicitly aimed at regime change and, despite the assassination of the supreme leader, are likely to last much longer than the limited action seen in 2025, when Brent briefly exceeded $80 per barrel,” Paolo Zanghieri, senior economist at Generali AM, pointed out in an analysis note.
The analyst pointed out that Iran's retaliation, by attacking Israel, US bases in the Gulf countries, and closing the Strait of Hormuz, “aims to pressure Gulf countries to seek de-escalation.”
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz “could reduce global oil production by around 15 to 20%,” according to the analyst's calculations, who noted that OPEC+ decided to increase supply by 206,000 barrels per day, which could offset the loss of Iranian exports.
Galp posted a record net profit of €1.15 billion in 2025, a 20% increase over the previous year, the company announced today.
The result was driven by oil and gas production in Brazil and natural gas sales, despite declines in oil and the dollar, and the scheduled maintenance shutdown of the Sines refinery.
SCR/ADB // ADB.
Lusa
