The impact of the Iran war on Italian GDP will vary from 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points, depending on whether oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz resumes, the Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB) says in its April 2026 Economic Outlook.
    The UPB considers two scenarios.
    If the truce is consolidated and the Strait is gradually reopened, supplies and prices would gradually return to normal.
    GDP growth would deteriorate compared to the pre-conflict scenario by 0.2 percentage points in both 2026 and 2027, while inflation would increase by 1.3 percentage points this year and by 0.5 points next year.
    In the event of more persistent tensions but without military escalation, the reduction in GDP growth would be just under half a percentage point in both 2026 and 2027, while inflation would increase by 1.3 percentage points in 2026 and 1.1 percentage points in 2027.

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