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وجاء في التقرير: (مراجعة الصورة البيانية)
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Lusa - Business News - Portugal: Portuguese economy could shrink 12% this year - Govt. consultant




Lisbon,July 10,2020 (Lusa)- The Portuguese economy could fall by 12% in 2020, a much greater drop than the 6.9% forecast by the government, according to the preliminary version of the economic recovery plan drawn up by the government's consultant, António Costa Silva.

In a 120-page document entitled "Strategic Vision for Portugal's economic and social recovery plan 2020-2030", António Costa Silva warns in the second paragraph of the document: it is not worth having "illusions".

"The health crisis caused by Covid-19 disease brings with it a deep economic recession that has global characteristics and that will deeply wound our economy", warns the author.

António Costa Silva pointed out that the forecasts for the Portuguese and world economies have been revised, and added that Portugal "could face one of the worst crises in its history" and that "the fall in GDP [Gross Domestic Product] in 2020 could reach 12%".

This figure is much higher than the recession forecast by the government in its amending budget recently approved by parliament and which predicted a fall in GDP of 6.9%, but which the government is also admitting to review.

"Given the current uncertainty, we are not going to update our macroeconomic projections now, but we will update them in due course according to economic developments," finance minister João Leão told Lusa on Thursday.

To justify the sharp drop in the economy, António Costa Silva predicts that consumption could fall by 11% in 2020, investment by 26% and acknowledges that the unemployment rate could reach 11.5%.

"The scale of the challenge is enormous and the need for responses is urgent", the document reads.

António Costa Silva also warned that "from September 2020, the situation of many companies could deteriorate significantly and it is essential to have an aggressive programme on the ground to avoid the collapse of profitable companies".

Another factor highlighted by the government's consultant is the time that it will take between "the significant deterioration of the economy in the second half of 2020" and the arrival of European aid next year.

"It can be fatal for many companies if there are no adequate responses," he warned.

In early June, the government confirmed that António Costa e Silva had been invited to coordinate the preparation of the economic recovery programme and that he had accepted this invitation "as a civic and 'pro bono' contribution".

According to the government, the objective was that the preparatory work was concluded when the government approved the amending budget, when the minister of economy, Pedro Siza Vieira, would assume the "direction of the preparation of the recovery programme".

VC/ADB // ADB.

Lusa


Agency : LUSA

Date : 2020-07-11 09:31:00







 

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