Lusa - Business News - Portugal: Moody's hails reduction of debt, deficit, warns of budgetary risks

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Lusa - Business News - Portugal: Moody's hails reduction of debt, deficit, warns of budgetary risks

Lisbon, Feb. 13, 2020 (Lusa) - Moody's on Thursday highlighted Portugal’s work to reduce its public debt and deficit, predicting that the public accounts will be in surplus this year, but that budgetary risks continue, for example from public hospitals’ debt.
At the rating agency’s annual conference in Lisbon, analyst Sarah Carlson said that the positive outlook that Moody's attributes to Portugal's credit rating is thanks to the "fiscal consolidation" that Portugal has achieved, and that the country is expected to achieve a public sector budget surplus this year and progress in reducing public indebtedness.
The Socialist government foresees a surplus equivalent to 0.2% of GDP in its 2020 budget.
According to Carlson, the country’s work to reduce its public debt has been shown to be "resilient to shocks", and the debt is thus likely to continue to fall even in adverse scenarios, despite still being the third-highest in the European Union relative to GDP.
According to the EU’s statistics office, Eurostat, Portugal’s public debt in the third quarter of 2019 stood at 120.5% of GDP, the third-highest figure in the EU.
In addition, Carlson said, Portugal’s banking sector is now doing better, with improved asset quality and a less-indebted private sector. That contributes to the positive outlook for the credit rating that Moody’s allocates to Portugal’s sovereign debt.
Still, she warned, budgetary risks remain, for example the rigidity of public spending in Portugal and the large debt of its public hospitals and the late payments they accumulate.
Moody's rates Portugal long-term sovereign debt as 'Baa3' with a positive outlook – a grade that it confirmed on 17 January. It is the only one of the leading international credit ratig agencies to keep Portugal's long-term debt just one notch above 'junk'; the others have already raised the country’s rating one more notch into the investment category.
Credit ratings reflect an agency’s assessment of the credit risk of an issuer – its ability to pay its debt – which may be a country or a company.
As for the euro zone as a whole, at Thursday's conference in Lisbon, Moody's said it saw economic growth, but hesitant, given that the bloc is very much influenced by what is happening in the rest of the world.
"If something puts pressure on global trade, it puts pressure on Europe's growth," said Carlson.
She stressed that the fall in unemployment in the zone has been positive, especially in countries that suffered the most from the previous crisis, but also that economic growth would benefit from an expansion of the workforce. In particular, in Moody's view, it would be positive for the economy for workers aged over 55 and more women to be to be encouraged to enter the labour market.
Her colleague Victor Garcia, meanwhile, spoke of the effect of the coronavirus outbreak, arguing that it is set to affect most sectors such as the automotive industry, retailing and raw materials, as well as companies that have major exposure to China’s market.

IM/ARO // ARO.
Lusa

Agency : LUSA
Date : 2020-02-14 00:14:11

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