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Lusa - Business News - Mozambique: IMF forecasts strong economic recovery in 2020




Maputo, Nov. 13,2019 (Lusa) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Mozambique to have a strong economic recovery in 2020 with low inflation, the fund's technical mission said at the end of a visit to the country.
IMF figures pointed to a GDP growth of 5.5% in 2020 compared to 2.1% forecast for this year and inflation should remain low, despite rising to 5% next year compared with the 3% forecast for late 2019.
A month ago, at the launch of the report 'World Economic Outlook', the fund predicted a growth of 1.8% of GDP for 2019, an acceleration to 6% in 2020 and 11.5% in 2024.
Next year's economic dynamics will be supported by the post-cyclone reconstruction efforts of Idai and Kenneth, which hit the country earlier this year, by a recovery in agriculture and by the economic stimulus of further gradual relaxation of monetary conditions, although cautiously, noted Ricardo Velloso.
The Bank of Mozambique has room to continue lowering the reference interest rate, but there are several risks, namely the direction of fiscal policy, the effects of the international trade war and doubts about the peace agreement between the government and the opposition.
Although the pacification process is progressing, it is not known if it will continue to go well, he said.
The IMF said that other drivers of the economy in 2020 will include the regularisation of domestic payments in arrears to suppliers and the mega-projects of liquefied natural gas, which should boost the construction sector and other activities.
The IMF mission reaffirmed other recommendations already made in previous contacts: regularise the primary deficit by 2022, make well-targeted social spending and discipline financing by supporting it with external grants and highly concessional loans, considering debt sustainability.
The IMF expects Mozambique's public debt to rise this year to 108.8% of GDP, remaining above 100% of GDP until 2023.
The fund also highlights the sovereign debt restructuring ('Eurobonds') completed in October, considering it broadly in line with the baseline scenario in the sustainability analysis.
Even so, it added that a gradual fiscal consolidation and the success of the government's strategy to ensure the reduction of debt with international private creditors continue to be essential for the sustainability of the public debt.
The IMF also welcomed the government's intention to retain part of the capital gains tax collected this year ($880 million), with the sale of Anadarko/Occidental's natural gas exploration Area 1 to Total, in an embryonic sovereign fund.
LFO/IMYN // ADB.
Lusa


Agency : LUSA

Date : 2019-11-14 08:40:00







 

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